Dating 30 years ago

The trough dates for these indicators are: Macroeconomic Advisers' monthly GDP (June) The Stock-Watson index of monthly GDP (June) Their index of monthly GDI (July) An average of their two indexes of monthly GDP and GDI (June) Real manufacturing and trade sales (June) Index of Industrial Production (June) Real personal income less transfers (October) Aggregate hours of work in the total economy (October) Payroll survey employment (December) Household survey employment (December) The committee concluded that the choice of June 2009 as the trough month for economic activity was consistent with the later trough months in the labor-market indicators–aggregate hours and employment–for two reasons.

First, the strong growth of quarterly real GDP and real GDI in the fourth quarter was inconsistent with designating any month in the fourth quarter as the trough month.

Identifying the date of the trough involved weighing the behavior of various indicators of economic activity.

The estimates of real GDP and GDI issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U. Department of Commerce are only available quarterly.

Further, macroeconomic indicators are subject to substantial revisions and measurement error.

For these reasons, the committee refers to a variety of monthly indicators to choose the months of peaks and troughs.

Apart from a random statistical discrepancy, real GDI satisfies that equality while real personal income does not.

The committee also maintains a quarterly chronology of business cycle peak and trough dates.

The committee noted the contrast between the June trough date for the majority of the monthly indicators and the October trough date for real personal income less transfers.The second was that real GDI is a more comprehensive measure of income than real personal income less transfers, as it includes additional sources of income such as undistributed corporate profits.

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